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The U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin chaired his last and overall 25th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9, 2025. The U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $500 million security assistance package for Ukraine to meet critical security and defense needs.

The last meeting of the group, established by Austin in April 2022, was focused on developing better ways to keep supporting Ukraine despite the transition of power in Washington.

Since its inception, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group has been a cornerstone of international efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses against Russia’s invasion. Spearheaded by the U.S. and co-chaired by the Russian leadership, the group transformed from an ad-hoc assembly into a well-coordinated coalition of nations providing vital military assistance.

Over three years, this coalition of nearly 50 nations has provided unprecedented levels of military aid to Ukraine, amounting to $126 billion. As Austin along with the rest of the Biden Administration departs, uncertainty looms about the group’s future under an incoming administration that has signaled a potential shift in policy.

In his opening remarks at the meeting, Austin reflected on the group’s journey: “Today, this … group provides more than a common understanding, it provides a common cause.” The group’s achievements include securing critical weaponry, coordinating logistics, and ensuring that Ukraine remains equipped to defend its sovereignty.

“Some 50 countries of conscience are coordinating closely with Ukraine to send vital, consistent, and cutting-edge security assistance. And that has helped turn Ukraine’s struggle into one of the great military success stories of our time,” he added.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, praised Austin’s leadership, emphasizing its importance to Ukraine’s survival: “It’s clear that a new chapter starts for Europe and the entire world just 11 days from now when we have to cooperate even more.”

During the Ramstein meeting, I met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to discussed support for Ukraine.

Our conversation focused on the situation on the battlefield, the role of drones at this stage of the war, and Ukraine’s defense needs for various types of UAVs. We… pic.twitter.com/tflCFAUtZ8

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 9, 2025

Roadmap for Ukraine’s defense through 2027

During the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, the leaders of the group’s eight “capability coalitions” endorsed comprehensive roadmaps outlining Ukraine’s critical defense needs and objectives through 2027.

These roadmaps cover key areas such as air force, armor, artillery, de-mining, drones, integrated air and missile defense, information technology, and maritime security.

Designed to enable sustainable support, the roadmaps provide a framework for donors to plan their contributions strategically, ensuring Ukraine’s immediate wartime needs are met while laying the groundwork for its long-term defense capabilities.

This endorsement fulfills the July 12, 2024 commitment to develop detailed plans to streamline security assistance, build credible defense and deterrence capabilities, and enhance Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO. The roadmaps also send a clear signal to the defense industry, underscoring the demand for expanded production and innovation.

Coalition nations have committed to balancing Ukraine’s current and future force requirements through donations, procurements, and investments, and by leveraging Ukraine’s domestic defense production capacity. These plans will remain dynamic, evolving to address urgent needs and positioning Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression effectively.

Additional support package for Kyiv

Austing announced a $500 million aid package which includes air defense interceptors, small arms, and spare parts. The latest package has brought the Biden administration’s total security commitments to $66 billion, which accounts for nearly half of the total contributions made by the entire coalition, showcasing the pivotal role of U.S. leadership.

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the aid includes the approval of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package to provide Ukraine with additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including missiles for air defense; air-to-ground munitions; and equipment to support Ukraine’s use of F-16s.

The capabilities in the latest package include:

• AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
• Air-to-ground munitions;
• Support equipment for F-16s;
• Armored bridging systems;
• Secure communications equipment

Uncertainty under new leadership

As the Biden administration winds down in the U.S., the incoming Trump administration presents a starkly different vision. President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20. He has repeatedly called for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine, raising concerns about the future of the coalition. Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, television host Pete Hegseth, has little experience in international defense diplomacy and coalitions, further amplifying fears of a potential pivot in U.S. policy.

European officials are particularly worried about this issue. The potential dissolution of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group without a clear alternative could destabilize the delicate balance of international support for Kyiv.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and other European leaders have expressed cautious optimism about maintaining the group’s structure. Pistorius remarked, “We think about options and alternatives, but the best solution would, in any case, be to continue the format.” However, he and others acknowledge that Europe must assume a greater share of the burden of U.S. support diminishes.

Europe’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas echoed this sentiment and said, “The message is very clear for the European countries as well: to do more.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Austin’s leadership, emphasizing the global stakes of the war in Ukraine: “The whole world is watching; so, we have to make sure that Ukraine is in the best possible position when talks would start, at the initiative of Ukraine, on how to solve this conflict.”

Rutte’s comments reflect a broader consensus that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will have far-reaching implications for global security. A weakened coalition could embolden Russian aggression, undermining the international order and threatening the stability of Europe.

Austin himself warned against complacency, urging coalition members to stay the course. “We must not stop now,” he said. Zelenskyy reinforced this sentiment with characteristic bluntness: “It would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now.”

Losing momentum

Despite the coalition’s successes, Ukraine faces mounting challenges. The country’s military, strained by nearly three years of intense conflict, is grappling with a critical shortage of manpower. While Western equipment has bolstered its capabilities, the human cost of the war continues to weigh heavily on Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defenses.

Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, highlighted the logistical challenges of maintaining Ukraine’s supply lines. “It is not going to be [gone] like that. It is just you might lose momentum,” he said, referring to the depletion of stockpiles.

The Biden administration’s efforts to rush additional aid before leaving office have provided a temporary buffer. However, the new administration will inherit a funding gap, with only $3.8 billion in authority left for military aid and no resources for replenishing depleted stockpiles.

Compounding these challenges is the growing sentiment among Western officials that a military resolution to the conflict may be unattainable. Instead, the focus has shifted toward positioning Ukraine for eventual peace talks with Russia, a strategy that relies heavily on maintaining current levels of support.

Call for action

As Lloyd Austin steps down, he leaves behind a coalition that has achieved remarkable feats under extraordinary circumstances. Yet, his departure marks the beginning of a precarious new chapter for the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The continued success of this coalition will depend on its ability to adapt to shifting geopolitical realities and maintain the unity that has been its hallmark.

For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. The country’s survival hinges on sustained international support and any faltering in the coalition’s resolve could have devastating consequences. As Austin passes the baton, the world will be watching closely to see whether the group he built can endure without him.