IRIA News

Turkey’s elections move to the runoff after candidates fail to attain the 50% majority threshold.

Turkey is heading into runoff elections after longtime Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu were able to win more than 50% of the vote. The 69-year-old Erdogan is leading the tightly contested 2023 presidential elections.

President Erdogan defied pre-election forecasts and led the first round of elections with 49.51% votes after 100% of ballot boxes were opened, according to Turkey’s Supreme Election Council. His opponent, the 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads a six-party opposition coalition, secured 44.88% votes. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.17% of the votes.

• Erdogan — 49.51% votes

• Kemal Kilicdaroglu — 44.88% votes

• Sinan Ogan — 5.17% votes

Erdogan sees a path to winning another five years in office if he can secure the endorsement of a nationalist presidential candidate who came in third place in this vote. The second round of runoff elections would be held on May 28, 2023.

The May 28 presidential vote would decide who leads Turkey at a time when the country is facing several challenges domestically and internationally. Results of the high-stake elections would also be projected indirectly Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Turkey is a key NATO ally and regional power broker between Kyiv and Moscow.

Erdogan’s early lead

After gaining an early lead in the initial stages of the counting, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) claimed victory on the evening of May 14, as thousands of his supporters gathered at the party’s head office waving the party and national flags. However, the mood darkened at the headquarters of the AK Party in Istanbul after the lead slipped slowly and the vote percentage fell below 50%.

Muhteşem Kasımpaşa! Teşekkürler Beyoğlu! 🇹🇷 pic.twitter.com/JBJtpC5E18

— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RTErdogan) May 13, 2023

Kilicdaroglu welcomed the prospect of a runoff vote and said his party would triumph. “If our nation says second round, we gladly accept it. We will absolutely win this election in the second round. Everyone will see that,” he said in a statement.

Parliamentary majority

The presidential elections have been pushed forward to the second round but the parliamentary majority became evident in the first round of the elections on May 14. Erdogan’s AK party and its allies secured 322 seats in Turkey’s 600-seat parliament while the opposition won 213 and the 65 remaining went to a pro-Kurdish and leftist alliance, according to preliminary results.

Erdogan’s party secured 266 seats claiming a substantial majority. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 166 seats in parliament. AK Party won the majority in the current elections, however, lost some of its previously held seats, decreasing from 296 to 266.

Election day

Polling continued from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday. More than 64 million Turks, including 3.4 million overseas voters, were eligible to vote in the elections. The largest Turkish diaspora resides in Germany, where over 700,000 votes were cast. Among these votes, 66% were in favor of Erdogan (462,000), 33% for Kilicdaroglu (230,000). In France, which has the second-largest Turkish diaspora, Erdogan also secured a significant portion of the votes, at 64%.

Turkey holds elections every five years. This year, the voter turnout rate in Turkiye was 88.92% and around 52.69% among voters abroad, council chairman Ahmet Yener said. Although the country’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) predicted last month that at least 1 million voters from earthquake-stricken zones are expected not to vote this year amid displacement, overall voter turnout reached a record 88.9%.

Eşim Selvi Hanımla birlikte oyumuzu kullandık. Ülkemize ve milletimize hayırlı olsun.🫶🏼 pic.twitter.com/m6lOtpizPe

— Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (@kilicdarogluk) May 14, 2023

Both leading candidates concluded their election campaigns in a different manner on the night of May 13. Erdogan ended his campaign by visiting the Hagia Sofia, a mosque and major historical site in Istanbul. While Kilicdaroglu visited the tomb of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern-day secular Turkey.

Challenges ahead

Turkey is in a grip of severe economic and geopolitical challenges. Whoever takes the Presidential office in Ankara would take the bull by the horns. Turkey’s currency has plummeted and prices have ballooned, prompting a cost-of-living crisis that has chipped away at Erdogan’s conservative, working-class support base.

Turkey also suffered from a vicious earthquake on February 6, 2023, that laid waste to large parts of the country’s southeast region, claiming at least 50,000 lives, largely due to unsafe buildings. Erdogan’s administration has been battling political aftershocks of the devastation of the earthquake while dealing with a crisis. His critics bashed him for a botched rescue effort and neglected building controls.

On the international front, Turkey has drawn considerable attention and concern in the West by continuing to maintain close ties with Russia against the backdrop of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, Turkey’s resistance to NATO’s expansion plans and delay in granting membership to Finland and Sweden have posed challenges for alliance leadership. In addition, Turkey’s approach to the ongoing Syrian crisis has further strained its relationship with the United States. The country now appears inclined to normalize its relations with the regime of Bashar Al Assad, backed by Russia and Iran.