IRIA News

In an apparent rejection of the military-led ruling Thai government, two opposition parties led the elections held on May 14, 2023. With the election lead divided among two parties, it is expected that a coalition government would be formed.

The latest elections have been described as a turning point for Thailand’s political landscape after the military coup of 2014. The incumbent prime minister of Thailand, Prayuth Chan-Ocha, was appointed to lead the Thai government in 2014 after a military coup and extended his rule for another term.

Based on the initial non-official results, the military-backed government failed to attain an evident lead as two opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Froward, racked up majority seats.

Thailand election 2023: Thai prime ministerial candidates cast their votes –

Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin of Pheu Thai and PM Prayuth Chan-ocha

📷: AP/Nikkei pic.twitter.com/8JbDMS0Yi9

— IRIA (@IRIA_Research) May 15, 2023

Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, enjoys huge support from the country’s youth. With 99% of the votes counted, it is expected that the Move Forward party would lead with 148 seats in Thailand’s 500 seats parliament with the Pheu Thai party in second place with 138 seats. The current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-Ocha’s party potentially would grab about 12 seats.

Although it is yet to be decided who would secure the government, a possibility persists that through an alliance with the Pheu Party, the leader of the Move Forward party Pita Limjaroenrat would be Thailand’s new prime minister.

As the counting entered its final stage, Pita posted on his Twitter: “Dear fellow citizens, today I am Pita Limcharoenrat ‘Clear’ and ‘Ready’ to be the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand.”

He tweeted his readiness to take the leadership by saying “We believe that our beloved Thailand can be better, and change is possible if we start today.” He said that “Our dream and hope are simple and straightforward, and no matter if you would agree or disagree with me, I will be your prime minister. And no matter if you have voted for me or have not, I will serve you.”

Leader of the Pheu Thai party Paetongtarn Shinawatra congratulated the Move Forward party on their evident success and hinted at an alliance between the two parties by saying that “we can work together”. Shinawatra added in her statement, “We are ready to talk to Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official result”.

Official results may take several weeks to be prepared. After the official result has been announced, Prime Minister will be chosen by the 500 elected parliamentarians and 250 senate members. The senators have always voted in favor of the current, military-aligned government, and never in favor of the opposition.

Key players in Thai elections 2023

Thailand’s powerful conservative establishment draws support from an influential voter base that tends to favor political parties with ties to the military, monarchy, and ruling elites. On the opposing side are progressive and populist opposition parties.

Move Forward Party — Led by 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward is gaining the support of young Thai voters by challenging the military’s hold on power. The party aims to secure a spot in a coalition government and is seen as a “game changer” for advocating structural reforms, including military and lese majeste law changes that prohibits criticism of the Thai monarchy.

Pita has been praised for his polite but firm debating style and has racked up a lot of support for the young population due to his effective social media campaign. Pita has promised to push military generals back to the barracks, a pledge that resonates with the young Thai population who have already lived through two military coups, in 2006 and 2014.

Thailand’s prospective prime minister Pita is a Harvard graduate and grew up in a politically influential family in Bangkok. His father, Pongsak Limjaroenrat, was an adviser to the Ministry of Agriculture, and his uncle, Padung Limcharoenrat, was a close aide of the former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Pheu Thai party — The pro-democracy opposition party Pheu Thai party, which is currently leading in opinion polls, has put forward two prime ministerial candidates. One of the key candidates is the 36-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the member of the influential political family which was ousted by the military in 2006 and has been in exile since 2008. As the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman turned billionaire telecoms tycoon, she has utilized her father’s connections to appeal to voters, especially in rural areas. Her campaign promises include raising the minimum wage and ending military conscription.

The other Pheu Thai candidate is Srettha Thavisin, a real-estate mogul turned politician. Despite lacking the charismatic appeal of a populist leader, 60-year-old Srettha Thavisin has proven business acumen that could win over voters. As the former property developer and builder of the successful Sansiri Development, now worth $880 million in market capitalization, he also has a talent for brand building.

United Thai Nation — The incumbent prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who staged the 2014 coup, is running for re-election with his new party, the United Thai Nation. Despite losing the 2019 election, he secured enough support from coalition parties to remain in power. While his connections with Thailand’s elites are significant, his low approval ratings reflect criticism for his controversial leadership, growing authoritarianism, and increased inequality.

Thailand’s history has seen elected governments struggle to survive amid military influence, with the country witnessing a coup on average every seven years since 1932. Prayut, who presents himself as a civilian premier, is a former general who has remained in office since the 2014 and now seeks to return to power.