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Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced plans to raise the nation’s defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030, a significant increase from its current 2.4%. If approved by parliament, the plan would amount to an additional $30 billion, positioning Sweden at the forefront of NATO’s evolving defense landscape.

Speaking at a press briefing, Kristersson described the decision as a calculated response to global uncertainties and shifting expectations within the transatlantic alliance.

“I don’t want us to act in a way that undermines the possibility of transatlantic cooperation. But we also cannot assume or take for granted that the United States will continue to act in Europe as it has over the past 80 years,” Kristersson stated.

He noted that the increased spending target aligns with what he believes could be a new alliance-wide standard. “My qualified guess is that NATO would set the 3.5 percent target at the alliance’s summit in July,” he said, adding that Sweden is planning to hit that mark “within five years.”

A strategic leap

The dramatic increase in defense funding comes in response to growing security concerns across Europe, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and ongoing instability in the Baltic region. As one of NATO’s newest members, Sweden is seeking to demonstrate not only its commitment to collective defense but also its capacity to lead within the alliance.

“This would represent a significant strengthening of the European NATO,” Kristersson emphasized. “Let’s not forget that it’s the European NATO that’s being tested right now.”

Sweden’s initiative would place it well ahead of NATO’s existing 2% GDP defense spending benchmark, which only a fraction of member states currently meet. With Sweden already spending 2.4% and planning to reach 2.6% by 2028, the 3.5% target marks a decisive acceleration in its defense trajectory.

Domestic politics and funding strategy

The proposal will be submitted to parliament on April 15 and voted on by June 20. While the ruling Moderate Party governs in coalition with the Sweden Democrats, Kristersson indicated that the government intends to seek broad, cross-party support for what he described as a critical national investment.

If approved, the $30 billion needed to fund the expansion will be borrowed from banks, a move that underscores the government’s urgency despite the fiscal strain. Though specific spending allocations have not yet been finalized, Kristersson’s presentation included references to investment in key military capabilities such as drones, air defense systems, and munitions.

“It will be about NATO’s capability needs, what NATO demands. For Sweden, much of this revolves around the Baltic Sea,” he explained.

Ties with the United States

While the plan serves regional defense goals, Kristersson was candid in acknowledging that a significant part of the motivation is to maintain a strong relationship with the United States, especially amid signs of shifting American foreign policy.

“Some statements and moves from the Trump administration are quite difficult for us in Europe to understand right now,” he said, expressing concern that traditional U.S. commitments to Europe could be recalibrated. His remarks reflect broader unease across Europe about future U.S. engagement under President Trump.

By dramatically increasing its defense contributions, Sweden aims to reinforce its role as a credible and proactive NATO partner, one that contributes meaningfully to transatlantic security, regardless of Washington’s long-term posture.

Continued support for Ukraine

Alongside the defense spending surge, Sweden is also ramping up military aid to Ukraine. The government announced that financial support to Ukraine will rise from $2.5 billion to just over $4.0 billion in 2025. This increase will be funded by accelerating investments initially scheduled for 2026.​

As of January 30, 2025, Sweden has provided roughly $6.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine through 18 aid packages, a reflection of its strong stance against Russian aggression and a show of solidarity with Kyiv.​

The 2026 support framework will be reassessed later, but the message is clear: Sweden intends to remain a steadfast supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing fight for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

New defense paradigm

The sweeping proposal places Sweden at a strategic crossroads, one where it transitions from a traditionally neutral state to a key player within NATO’s European defense structure. It is also a clear signal to both allies and adversaries that Sweden is prepared to invest heavily in its security, autonomy, and international credibility.

As the NATO summit in July approaches, Sweden’s proposal could influence discussions on alliance-wide defense spending targets. If adopted by NATO, the 3.5% threshold would represent a major shift in burden-sharing expectations across the alliance.

In the meantime, Sweden’s political leadership is making the case that defense is not merely a military matter, but a long-term investment in national sovereignty and regional stability.

With a strong parliamentary mandate likely and public support bolstered by growing regional threats, Sweden appears ready to lead by example. Whether NATO follows suit remains to be seen, but the message from Stockholm is loud and clear.