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Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Baku on August 19, 2024, for a two-day state visit, signaling a critical juncture in the complex geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus.

The visit, marked by its potential implications for regional stability and Moscow’s waning influence, comes as Azerbaijan’s ties with Russia are tested amid broader international tensions.

During his visit, Putin held talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, focusing on the “further development of the Russia-Azerbaijan strategic partnership and alliance,” according to a statement from the Kremlin. The discussions covered a range of “international and regional problems,” reflecting the complex web of interests that bind Moscow and Baku together.

Putin laid flowers at the tomb of Heydar Aliyev, the former Azerbaijani president and father of the current leader. Heydar Aliyev, president from 1993 to 2003, is a revered figure in Azerbaijan, credited with stabilizing the country after the turmoil of the early post-Soviet years and laying the groundwork for its current economic development.

🇦🇿🇷🇺 Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin are arriving in the “White City” of Baku.#Caliber #Azerbaijan #Russia #President #IlhamAliyev #Putin pic.twitter.com/ruLeG58wnu

— Caliber English (@CaliberEnglish) August 19, 2024

Facilitating peace talks

A central theme of the talks between Putin and Aliyev focused on the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a long-standing flashpoint that has seen renewed hostilities in recent years. Following Azerbaijan’s decisive military operation in September 2023, which resulted in Baku regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have taken on a new urgency. The role of Russia, traditionally seen as a key mediator in the region, has been complicated by Armenia’s recent pivot towards the West.

The Kremlin’s statement highlighted the outcome of Putin’s visit, including the signing of a joint statement and several other documents. Vladimir Putin stated that Russia “would be happy to” help facilitate the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan during discussions with his Azerbaijani counterpart.

“If we can do something that leads Azerbaijan and Armenia to sign a peace agreement… we’d be very happy to do so,” Putin told President Ilham Aliyev during his state visit to Baku. Putin also mentioned that he plans to meet with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to share the results of his discussions with Aliyev.

“It’s well known that Russia is also facing crises, primarily in the Ukrainian direction,” Putin noted. “But Russia’s historical involvement in the South Caucasus situation over the past few years dictates our need to participate in these events.”

Nagorno-Karabakh, a region with a majority ethnic Armenian population, has been the subject of intense conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The most recent flare-up in 2023 saw Azerbaijan launch a successful military campaign to reclaim the territory, which had been under Armenian control since the early 1990s.

In the aftermath of this offensive, Yerevan and Baku have been engaged in peace talks aimed at resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and other related issues. However, the negotiations have been fraught with difficulties, not least because of Armenia’s shifting foreign policy.

Historically aligned with Moscow, Armenia has increasingly sought to bolster its ties with Western countries, including the United States. This shift has been driven in part by dissatisfaction with what Yerevan perceives as Moscow’s failure to adequately support it during the 2023 conflict. Armenia’s outreach to the West has not gone unnoticed in Moscow, where officials are reportedly concerned about losing influence in a region they consider part of their traditional sphere.

For Azerbaijan, the return of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a significant victory, solidifying President Aliyev’s domestic standing. However, Baku’s relationship with Moscow remains complex, balancing its strategic partnership with Russia against its role as a major energy supplier to Europe. Azerbaijan’s energy exports, particularly natural gas, have become increasingly important to Western countries, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russian energy.

Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan is taking place against the backdrop of an international arrest warrant issued for him by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Ukraine. The warrant, issued in March 2023, has limited Putin’s ability to travel internationally without the risk of arrest. However, Azerbaijan, which is not a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, offers Putin a haven where he can conduct diplomatic engagements without fear of detention.

This visit is Putin’s first to Azerbaijan since September 2018, when he attended the Judo World Championship and participated in the ninth plenary session of the Russia-Azerbaijan interregional forum. The current visit, however, is expected to be far more consequential, given the heightened geopolitical stakes.