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Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a formal apology on December 28, 2024, to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for a “tragic incident” of an Azerbaijani airliner in Kazakhstan. The disaster claimed 38 lives and has raised questions about Russian air defense actions.

The ill-fated Azerbaijani Airlines plane was on its way from Baku to Grozny, the regional capital of Russia’s Chechnya when it veered off course toward Aktau, a city in Kazakhstan across the Caspian Sea. The aircraft crashed while attempting to land, resulting in the deaths of 38 passengers and leaving 29 survivors with varying injuries. Survivors have reported hearing loud noises aboard the aircraft before the crash, a detail that has fueled speculation about external interference.

Putin expressed his regret over the tragedy, apologizing to President Aliyev for the loss of lives within Russian airspace. However, the Kremlin did not take responsibility for downing the Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Russian authorities have acknowledged that air defense systems near Grozny airport were active during the crash. The Kremlin’s statement indicated that these systems were responding to a Ukrainian drone attack targeting Grozny, though it stopped short of confirming that defensive fire struck the plane.

Azerbaijan says plane hit by external interference over Russia before crash

President Aliyev responded to Putin’s apology by asserting that the plane had been subjected to “external physical and technical interference” in Russian airspace that resulted in a complete loss of control. Though he refrained from directly accusing Russian air defenses, he stated that the aircraft was diverted to Aktau city of Kazakhstan, and managed to make an emergency landing thanks to the exceptional “courage and professionalism of the pilots.”

Aliyev pointed out the presence of multiple holes in the plane’s fuselage and injuries sustained by passengers from “foreign particles penetrating the cabin mid-flight,” adding that the accounts of surviving flight attendants and passengers also confirmed external physical and technical interference.

Azerbaijan has initiated an international investigation into the incident, with Azerbaijani prosecutors arriving in Grozny to collaborate with Russian and Kazakh authorities. The investigation is also drawing on the expertise of international aviation specialists.

Aviation experts suggest air defense fire likely caused the crash

U.S. officials and an Azerbaijani minister along with several aviation experts have pointed to an external weapon as the likely cause of the crash. These assertions align with allegations that Russian air defenses may have inadvertently targeted the airliner while responding to Ukrainian drones.

Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, stated that the plane encountered complications while attempting to land in Grozny under deep fog. According to Yadrov, Ukrainian drone activity prompted authorities to close the airspace to civilian traffic. After two failed landing attempts, the plane was redirected to Aktau.

Rosaviatsia initially suggested that a bird strike might have led to an onboard emergency, but this explanation has been met with skepticism. Azerbaijan Airlines, for its part, attributed the crash to “physical and technical interference” and has suspended flights to several Russian airports without elaborating further.

The crash draws comparisons to the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine. That incident, which killed 298 people, remains a dark chapter in aviation history. While Moscow has consistently denied responsibility for MH17, a Dutch court convicted three individuals with ties to Russia for their roles in the attack.

Aviation fallout

The Azerbaijani airliner crash has sparked significant disruptions in regional air travel. Azerbaijan Airlines has expanded its suspension of flights to multiple Russian cities, while other carriers, including Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air and Turkmenistan Airlines, have also halted services to Russia citing safety concerns. Israel’s El Al has suspended flights between Tel Aviv and Moscow, citing “developments in Russia’s airspace.”

Preliminary investigations into the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash near Aktau suggest possible involvement of Russian air defenses. Experts point to damage on the fuselage, potentially caused by a surface-to-air missile. 38 dead, 29 survivors in crash. https://t.co/tpXBtyTXEh pic.twitter.com/7tNS7ZR1KB

— IRIA (@IRIA_Research) December 26, 2024

This tragic incident unfolds against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the region, as Russia continues to grapple with the ramifications of its military actions in Ukraine. If investigations confirm that the Azerbaijani airliner was struck by Russian defensive fire, it could further strain Moscow’s relations with Baku and other neighboring states.

For now, the focus remains on uncovering the truth behind this aviation tragedy. As investigations proceed, the incident serves as a grim reminder of the risks faced by civilian aviation amid escalating regional conflicts.