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Poland has announced plans to raise its defense spending to 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026, marking the highest defense-to-GDP ratio within NATO, surpassing even that of the United States.

The announcement was made by Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on March 3, 2025, during a high-level meeting of EU defense ministers in Warsaw. Poland’s actions underscore its mounting concerns over regional security in the wake of Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine.

“Five percent is the goal we want to achieve next year, to get closer and closer to five percent,” Kosiniak-Kamysz told reporters. Poland is already on track to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defense in 2025, a massive leap from NATO’s official 2% benchmark for member states.

Meeting of EU defense ministers

The extraordinary summit in Warsaw, where the announcement was made, also focused on long-term strategic planning for European security. Defense chiefs convened to discuss the “White Paper for European Defense – Readiness 2030,” a pivotal document designed to support the ReArm Europe Plan and lay the groundwork for a cohesive and modernized European defense strategy.

“All ministers emphasized the importance of this document, the White Paper,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said, signaling broad consensus among EU leaders on the urgency of preparing for future conflict scenarios.

“We must be ready for the most difficult scenarios, and we must be strong enough to prevent war from breaking out. This is an action to make us so strong that it would not be profitable for any country to attack the European Union or NATO,” he added.

Geopolitical backdrop

Poland, a nation of 38 million people situated on NATO’s eastern flank, has historically viewed its proximity to Russia and Belarus as a strategic vulnerability. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland rapidly expanded its defense budget and embarked on one of Europe’s most ambitious military modernization programs. The threat posed by Moscow, particularly to Eastern European NATO members, has since reshaped strategic thinking across the continent.

Fearing that Russian ambitions could extend beyond Ukraine, Poland has emerged as one of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters, sending significant humanitarian, financial, and military aid. Alongside the Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, Poland has consistently exceeded NATO’s 2% spending target, often pressuring wealthier Western European allies to follow suit.

This bolstered stance is reflected not only in spending but also in procurement. In recent years, Poland has signed large-scale arms contracts primarily with the United States and South Korea, including the purchase of F-35 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, Patriot missile systems, and K2 Black Panther tanks. These acquisitions are aimed at rapidly enhancing Poland’s deterrence capabilities and interoperability with NATO forces.

NATO spending under Trump

The move toward 5% is not entirely homegrown. In recent months, pressure has mounted within NATO for members to increase their defense commitments. U.S. President Donald Trump has long criticized NATO countries for not contributing their fair share. Trump has repeatedly called for alliance members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, a figure previously seen as aspirational at best.

In a statement that aligned closely with Poland’s stance, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s call on Thursday: “NATO must commit to spending five percent of GDP on defense,” he said, brushing aside concerns about Trump’s reliability on NATO as “hysteria.”

Poland’s decision to align with this vision may also be a preemptive signal of solidarity with Washington, anticipating potential shifts in U.S. leadership following the 2024 presidential election.

Poland’s 5% target, while seen by some as an overcorrection, is likely to set a new benchmark within NATO. If more countries follow suit, the alliance could enter a new phase of militarization not seen since the Cold War. For Poland, the motivation is clear: deterrence through strength.

Analysts caution, however, that increasing defense budgets must be matched by coordinated strategy, logistical efficiency, and regional unity. The “White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030” is a step in that direction, but implementation will be key.

For now, Poland’s message is unambiguous: the cost of defense is high, but the cost of unpreparedness is far greater.

Background on Poland’s Military Build-up

Since 2015, Poland has steadily ramped up military investment, culminating in what defense experts call one of the most aggressive defense modernization programs in Europe. The post-2022 acceleration was particularly dramatic, driven by fears that Ukraine’s fall could leave Poland exposed.

Poland’s current defense doctrine includes:

• Increasing active-duty personnel to over 300,000 troops.
• Expanding territorial defense forces for domestic resilience.
• Doubling down on NATO joint exercises and interoperability.

The nation’s role in NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence and its geographic position as a critical logistical hub for Ukraine aid make its military trajectory highly consequential for both regional and global security.

As the war in Ukraine grinds on with no clear end in sight, Poland’s 5% pledge may not be an outlier, but the beginning of a broader transformation in Europe’s security architecture.