IRIA News

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Polish President Andrzej Duda has voiced his support for extending France’s nuclear deterrence to cover Poland. At the same time, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced his government’s plans to expand military training for all adult males, aiming for a 500,000-strong force.

“We will try to have a model ready by the end of this year so that every adult male in Poland is trained in the event of war,” Tusk said in a speech to parliament. He emphasized that the initiative would follow a Swiss-style reserve system rather than reintroducing universal military service.

Poland’s military currently comprises about 220,000 soldiers, with plans to recruit around 300,000 additional and reserve soldiers. “Today we are talking about the need for a half-million army in Poland,” Tusk stated.

“If Ukraine loses the war, Poland will find itself in a much more difficult geopolitical situation,” Tusk warned, underscoring the urgency of Poland’s military expansion. He also suggested that Poland should explore nuclear capabilities, saying, “We must be aware that Poland must reach for the most modern possibilities, also related to nuclear weapons and modern unconventional weapons.”

These developments occurred in the light of the remarks made by French President Emmanuel Macron, who proposed to extend France’s nuclear defense system to European allies.

The United States, under the administration of Donald Trump, has begun to withdraw military support for Ukraine, pushing European leaders to reconsider their defense strategies. With U.S. disengagement becoming a pressing concern, discussions around European security and nuclear deterrence have gained new momentum.

Tusk also proposed withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel landmines, and possibly the Dublin Convention, which prohibits cluster munitions. Other NATO nations bordering Russia, such as Finland and Lithuania, have also considered exiting the treaty. “Let us face it: it is not something nice, nothing pleasant. We know that very well,” he admitted. “The problem is that in our environment, those we may be afraid of, or those who are at war, they all have it.”

The opposition leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, stressed the need for a cultural shift alongside military preparation. “We will have a return to the chivalric ethos, that all men should also be soldiers, that is, be able to expose themselves even to death,” he said.

The Polish government is working on a constitutional amendment requiring Poland to allocate at least 4% of its GDP to defense, cementing its position as the highest defense spender in NATO relative to GDP.

French nuclear deterrent

France’s nuclear deterrent, designed to function independently from U.S. oversight, consists of air- and sea-based capabilities. The force includes French-made Rafale fighter jets equipped for nuclear strikes and a domestically produced fleet of nuclear submarines that provide second-strike capability. The French president alone holds the authority to deploy these weapons, ensuring rapid decision-making in times of crisis.

This deterrent was originally the vision of former French President Charles de Gaulle during the Cold War. He emphasized France’s strategic autonomy, ensuring that France maintained independent nuclear capabilities without reliance on U.S. infrastructure or approval. Today, Macron aims to repurpose this vision to fortify European defense in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

While the United Kingdom, the only nuclear-armed state in Europe apart from France, possesses an arsenal of 225 warheads, compared to France’s estimated 290, its strategic independence is limited. Unlike France, Britain’s nuclear program is deeply intertwined with the United States, relying on American infrastructure and operational support.

Macron’s proposal has ignited a crucial debate within the European Union. The discussion on European nuclear deterrence has also seen a shift in Germany’s traditional security approach. Historically reliant on U.S. protection through NATO, Germany has been reluctant to engage in nuclear deterrence debates.

However, Friedrich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, has expressed a willingness to engage in discussions with Paris and London regarding nuclear defense. This marks a significant departure from Berlin’s longstanding reliance on American security guarantees.

Is the French arsenal sufficient for Europe’s defense?

Another pressing question is whether France’s nuclear arsenal is sufficient to act as a deterrent for the entire European Union. With an estimated 290 warheads, France’s arsenal pales in comparison to Russia’s reported 4,380 warheads. While some argue that even a few hundred nuclear weapons are enough to deter adversaries, others stress that the balance of power remains unfavorable against Russia’s extensive nuclear capabilities.

However, strengthening Europe’s nuclear deterrence would require not only an expansion of missile stockpiles but also significant investments in delivery systems and infrastructure. Partner nations benefiting from the nuclear shield would likely need to contribute to the development and maintenance of these systems, making it a costly undertaking.

European strategic autonomy

For proponents of a stronger European defense policy, extending France’s nuclear deterrent could be a crucial step toward achieving greater strategic autonomy. It would demonstrate solidarity among EU nations while reducing dependence on the United States. However, this initiative also raises important questions about decision-making authority.

Macron has been firm in stating that the power to launch nuclear weapons should remain solely with the French president, a condition that could spark debate among European leaders seeking a more collective approach to security decisions.

Ultimately, whether France’s nuclear umbrella will extend beyond its borders remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Europe is entering a new phase of defense policy discussions, one that could reshape its security architecture for years to come.