IRIA News

4 minute read

Estonia has announced a significant increase in defense spending, raising it to at least 5% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) starting next year. The decision, confirmed by Prime Minister Kristen Michal, is a direct response to the growing threat posed by neighboring Russia.

Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur described the decision as a milestone for Estonia, a country of just 1.3 million people. “Such a fundamental decision on raising defense spending has never been made before,” Pevkur said.

Estonia, a NATO member and one of the Baltic states bordering Russia, has long been wary of Moscow’s military ambitions. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, security concerns have deepened across the region. Estonian officials now believe that an increase in defense spending is essential for national security.

“Russia has not changed its goals and imperialistic ambitions. This is a real threat to both Europe and NATO,” Michal stated. With this increase, Estonia will become one of the top NATO contributors in terms of defense spending, surpassing the alliance’s minimum threshold of 2% of GDP. This move follows a broader trend in Eastern Europe, where countries near Russia are ramping up their military preparedness.

Estonia’s military expenditure for the current year stands at 3.3% of GDP. The jump to at least 5% in just one year is an unprecedented increase in national defense investment.

“To go in one year from three to five percent of GDP in the defense budget is a highly important step for Estonia and Estonian people so that Estonia can be securely defended,” Pevkur emphasized.

The increase in spending is expected to enhance Estonia’s military capabilities, including modernizing equipment, expanding troop numbers, and strengthening defensive infrastructure along its eastern border.

Potential conflict in the Baltic region  

Estonia’s move aligns with similar actions by its Baltic neighbors. Lithuania has already announced plans to allocate between five and six percent of its GDP to defense from 2026 to 2030. Latvia is also in discussions to increase its military budget in response to the potential threat from Russia.

The Baltic nations, all of which were once part of the Soviet Union, have consistently warned that a Russian victory in Ukraine could embolden Moscow to expand its aggression further west. These concerns have been echoed by NATO military planners, who have been reinforcing the alliance’s eastern flank.

Surge in NATO defense spending

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has pushed NATO countries to reassess their military budgets. The alliance currently sets a minimum defense spending target of two percent of GDP, but several members, especially those in Eastern Europe, are now surpassing that benchmark.

Poland, another country with a strong stance against Russian aggression, has announced plans to allocate 4.7 percent of its GDP to defense in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured NATO allies to increase their military budgets to five percent of GDP, reinforcing the urgency of stronger defense investments.

While Estonia’s latest move is driven by regional security concerns, it also aligns with NATO’s broader strategy of fortifying its defenses against potential Russian aggression.

Message to Moscow

By significantly boosting its military spending, Estonia is sending a strong message to Russia that any potential aggression will come at a high cost. The Estonian government has made it clear that its goal is deterrence, ensuring that an attack on the country would be unfeasible. “Our aim is clear — to make any aggression against us unfeasible,” Michal stated.

The increase in Estonia’s defense budget is likely to fund new weaponry, fortifications, and troop expansions, all of which will make the country a more formidable adversary in the event of conflict. Additionally, the move may encourage other NATO nations to follow suit in increasing their defense budgets.

Estonia’s decision to raise defense spending to at least five percent of GDP marks a significant shift in the country’s military strategy. With Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine and growing concerns about regional security, Estonia is taking proactive measures to bolster its defenses.

This move reflects a broader trend among NATO allies, particularly in Eastern Europe, as they prepare for any potential escalation from Moscow. As tensions remain high in the region, Estonia’s historic decision signals its commitment to national security and the collective defense of NATO.