IRIA News

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China conducted a rare test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on September 25, 2024, launching it into the Pacific Ocean with the missile flying over the northern tip of the Philippines. This marks the first such test by China since the early 1980s and comes at a time of heightened global scrutiny of the nation’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal.

According to the Chinese defense ministry, the missile was carrying a dummy warhead and landed in designated “expected sea areas.” The ministry said that the launch was part of its “routine annual training plan” and emphasized that the test was not directed at any specific country or target.

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) launched the missile at 8:44 AM Beijing time. China’s defense ministry and state media offered little details about the type of missile and nature of the test.

Significance of the test

China’s ballistic missile tests are typically conducted within its territory or over the western Pacific, where it regularly tests short- and medium-range missiles. However, the testing of an ICBM, a missile capable of delivering nuclear payloads over vast distances, marks a significant departure from these more routine exercises.

The last known ICBM test by China over the Pacific Ocean occurred in 1980, when it tested the Dong Feng-5, its first domestically developed intercontinental missile, also over the Pacific Ocean. Analysts speculate that the missile tested on Wednesday was either the DF-41 (Dong Feng-41), which boasts a range of 12,000-15,000 kilometers (7,400 to 9,300 miles), or its predecessor, the Dong Feng-31, with a range of 7,200-8,000 km.

While the Chinese defense ministry has insisted the launch was part of routine military drills, international analysts are paying close attention to what the test suggests about China’s strategic capabilities and its potential intentions. Some see it as a signal to the international community about the growing sophistication of China’s nuclear and missile capabilities amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the United States.

The test has drawn considerable international attention. While China said it had notified the “concerned” nations in advance, it remains unclear which specific countries were informed. Authorities in the Philippines confirmed that they had received two Notams, navigational warnings for sea and airspace, on September 23, which were related to Chinese operations. The warnings indicated special operations to the country’s northwest and northeast, though it was not immediately clear if the Philippines had been explicitly told that these operations involved an ICBM.

Regional reactions

China’s latest ICBM test has provoked responses from several countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, many of which have voiced their concerns over the potential implications of the launch.

Japan was among the first to respond. Senior government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi stated on Wednesday that Japan had not been informed about the launch before it took place. Hayashi also emphasized that China’s accelerating military buildup, including tests such as these, is a “serious concern” for Japan, which has long been wary of the increasing military activities in the region.

Taiwan’s defense ministry has also been monitoring the situation. Although it did not comment specifically on the ICBM test, it acknowledged detecting “intensive” missile firings and other military drills by China recently. Taiwan remains on high alert, especially given its strategic location in the region and the rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei.

New Zealand also expressed concern about the missile test, particularly due to its potential impact on the Pacific region. A spokesperson for New Zealand’s foreign minister, Winston Peters, described the missile test landing in the South Pacific as “an unwelcome and concerning development.” The spokesperson further added that Pacific leaders have been clear in their calls for a “peaceful, stable, prosperous, and secure region,” implicitly suggesting that China’s actions could undermine these goals.

Some analysts noted that the missile might have been fired from China’s Hainan province or nearby and landed near French Polynesia. This trajectory aligns with the Philippines’ Notam information and warnings issued to airspace users near the French territory, which advised them to avoid the area due to a “particularly dangerous aerospace flight.” However, the precise location where the missile landed remains unclear.

Global implications

The timing of the test is especially sensitive, with growing global concerns over nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. While the Chinese government continues to insist on its “no first use” nuclear policy, the expansion of its missile capabilities is being closely scrutinized by neighboring countries and the international community at large.

This launch also comes as tensions escalate in various geopolitical hotspots, including the South China Sea, where China’s territorial claims have brought it into conflict with several neighboring countries. As Beijing continues to modernize its military, these kinds of missile tests may become more frequent, raising the stakes for both regional security and global stability.

For now, the ICBM test has raised more questions than answers about China’s strategic intentions, with many nations watching closely for what Beijing’s next moves might be.