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China and India agreed on patrolling arrangements in their disputed border in the western Himalayas on October 21, 2024, marking an end to the tense four-year military standoff that has strained relations between the two Asian giants.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar announced the breakthrough on October 21, a crucial step in improving political and business ties between the world’s two most populous countries.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed to the local media that an agreement had been reached with China regarding border patrolling.

“We reached an agreement on patrolling, and with that, we have gone back to where the situation was in 2020 and we can say, the disengagement process with China has been completed,” said Jaishankar.

He emphasized that peace and tranquility at the border were essential for advancing broader diplomatic relations. “We always said that if you disturb the peace and tranquility, how can the rest of the relationship go forward?” he remarked.

The announcement comes just before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia for the BRICS summit, scheduled from October 22-24. The summit also provides a platform for Modi to engage in talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Background of the dispute

The tensions between China and India escalated in 2020 when a deadly skirmish occurred along their largely unmarked frontier in the Ladakh region of the western Himalayas. The clash left 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers dead, marking the first combat fatalities in over 40 years between the two nations.

The confrontation highlighted the fragility of peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a loosely defined and disputed border that stretches over 3,440 kilometers between China and India.

Following the violent clash, both sides bolstered their military presence in the region, moving tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment closer to the high-altitude border. The soldiers were stationed in freezing conditions as both nations maintained an aggressive military posture, though they stopped patrolling certain points along the LAC to avoid further confrontations.

According to a senior Indian military official, the agreement outlines a schedule for patrolling contested points along the border, which will be carried out jointly by the two militaries. Both sides will monitor the area in Ladakh to ensure there are no violations of the agreement. This marks a significant step toward de-escalation, allowing both nations to focus on other areas of cooperation and addressing the political and economic strain that has grown since the clash.

As of now, Chinese authorities have not yet responded to India’s statement regarding the border agreement. However, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said in a statement, “China stands ready to work with other parties to strive for the steady and sustained development of greater BRICS cooperation, open a new era for the Global South to seek strength through solidarity and jointly promote world peace and development.”

Economic impacts of the standoff

The military standoff had far-reaching consequences beyond the border, particularly in trade and business relations. The slow progress in resolving the dispute over the past four years resulted in a cooling of economic ties between India and China. New Delhi tightened scrutiny on Chinese investments, resulting in halted projects and increased difficulties for Chinese businesses looking to invest in India.

India’s restrictions affected major Chinese companies like carmakers BYD and Great Wall Motor, which faced increased barriers to entering the Indian market. This, in turn, strained business relationships between Indian and Chinese companies. However, despite the heightened scrutiny, Indian imports from China have surged by 56% since the 2020 border clash, nearly doubling India’s trade deficit with China to $85 billion. China remains India’s largest trading partner and a key supplier of industrial products.

The new agreement on border patrolling is likely to improve the political climate between the two nations, potentially paving the way for the easing of economic restrictions. However, Jaishankar tempered expectations about any immediate changes, stating, “It has just happened. There will be meetings to see what the next steps will be. I wouldn’t go so fast.”

The deal is also expected to lead to a resumption of regular high-level talks and potentially a one-on-one meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi during the upcoming BRICS summit. Such a meeting would be a significant step toward repairing the fractured relationship between the two countries and could provide an opportunity to discuss broader regional security and economic cooperation.

The agreement is also likely to bring some relief to the residents of the Ladakh region, who have been living under the shadow of a military conflict for the past four years. Regular monitoring and a return to pre-2020 patrolling conditions could reduce tensions and allow both nations to focus on resolving other longstanding issues in their relationship.