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The tragic crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25 has left 38 dead and sparked intense scrutiny over the circumstances leading to the disaster. Preliminary investigations suggest the aircraft may have been inadvertently struck by Russian air defenses.

The Embraer passenger jet, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, to Grozny in Russia’s southern Chechnya region. After veering off its intended course, the plane crossed the Caspian Sea and crashed on the opposite shore in Kazakhstan. Officials report that 29 people survived the crash, including three children.

Azerbaijan Airlines crash and ongoing investigation

On Thursday (December 26), Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash. Speaking at a news conference, President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the cause, but confirmed the plane had diverted due to worsening weather conditions.

Aliyev convened a high-level meeting and ordered the formation of an investigative commission. The Azerbaijani government pledged a transparent investigation with regular updates. A criminal case has been initiated, with the Prosecutor General’s Office working closely with Kazakh authorities.

What was the cause of the crash?

According to multiple sources, the aircraft was struck by a missile fired from a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system while approaching Grozny. “No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, considering the facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” an Azerbaijani source told Reuters.

Azerbaijani government sources confirmed to Euronews that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile fired over Grozny. Euronews also reported that despite requests for an emergency landing, the plane was denied entry to Russian airports and was directed to fly across the Caspian Sea to Aktau.

The aircraft experienced communication disruptions due to GPS jamming while flying over Russian territory, reportedly caused by electronic warfare systems deployed to counter Ukrainian drone strikes in the region. Russian officials had earlier closed Makhachkala Airport, the nearest facility to the plane’s flight path, citing safety concerns.

In a social media post, flight-tracking app Flightradar24 said that the aircraft was “exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.” GPS jamming can severely disrupt a plane’s navigation and communication systems, posing significant safety risks. Data and video of the crash also “indicate possible control issues with the aircraft,” Flightradar24 said.

Increasing speculation in Russian media that the Baku-Grozny Azerbaijan Airlines flight was shot down by Russian air defenses that mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. Footage of the damage to the fuselage. pic.twitter.com/QzsDbCLDtS

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) December 25, 2024

Video footage from passengers onboard showed oxygen masks deployed and individuals wearing life vests, indicating an emergency mid-flight. The wreckage later revealed shrapnel damage to the plane’s tailfin, fueling suspicions of anti-aircraft fire. While the cause of these holes has not been confirmed, some experts suggested they appear similar to the damage from an “anti-aircraft missile system.”

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, initially attributed the crash to a bird strike. However, aviation experts and Azerbaijani investigators have challenged this explanation. Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, stated that the crash dynamics and visible damage were more consistent with external interference, such as hydraulic failure caused by missile impact, rather than engine damage from a bird strike. “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system,” according to Osprey.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors global airspace risks, said the plane’s fragments strongly suggest it was hit by a surface-to-air missile (SAM). “Much more to investigate, but at high level we’d put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.

Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Qanat Bozymbaev and other officials have refrained from confirming the missile theory, citing an ongoing investigation. Similarly, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged patience, stating, “We need to wait for the investigation to conclude.”

Heightened tensions in the region

The crash occurred against the backdrop of ongoing drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. On the same day, Russia reported downing 59 Ukrainian drones in its southern regions. These operations, involving advanced air defense systems and GPS jamming, have raised concerns about civilian aircraft safety in the affected airspace.

Publicly available flight tracking data indicated that Flight J2-8243 was subject to GPS disruptions during its journey. After being denied landing clearance at Grozny and nearby airports, the aircraft diverted to Kazakhstan before its ill-fated descent near Aktau.

News site Caliber.az that a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system hit an Azerbaijan Airlines flight as it approached Grozny, questioning why Russian authorities didn’t close the airport amid a reported drone attack. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya’s Security Council, confirmed the downing of drones targeting the region on December 25. Caliber also asked why the plane wasn’t allowed to make an emergency landing nearby. The news report also claimed that electronic warfare (EW) systems paralyzed the plane’s communication, causing it to disappear from radar while in Russian airspace, only reappearing over the Caspian Sea.

International and local reactions

Kazakhstan Senate Chairman Maulen Ashimbayev condemned speculation about the crash, emphasizing the need for transparency. “None of these countries, neither Azerbaijan, Russia, nor Kazakhstan, is interested in hiding information. All information will be made available to the public,” he said.

NATO also called for a comprehensive investigation. “Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243,” NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said. “We wish those injured a speedy recovery and call for a full investigation.”

Meanwhile, emergency officials confirmed that a plane carrying nine injured Russian citizens from the crash had arrived in the Moscow region.

The crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 has raised pressing questions about the safety of civilian flights in contested airspace. As investigations continue, the international community awaits answers about what caused this devastating tragedy, with all eyes on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan to provide transparency and accountability.