How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Modern Warfare and Strategies

July 2, 2024

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential of this technology have led to the development and deployment of technologies that were once considered science fiction. From autonomous drones to military robots, the integration of AI into various sectors is reshaping warfare, national security, diplomacy, economy, governance, health, and beyond.

AI refers to the ability of machines to perform tasks that would otherwise require human intelligence, such as reasoning, perception, decision-making, recognizing patterns, learning from experience, drawing conclusions, and making predictions. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) describes AI as “the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence” and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) defines AI as “a programmed ability to process information.”

Military AI capabilities include weapons as well as decision support systems that help leaders at all levels make better and timely decisions, from the battlefield to the boardroom, from combat to tactical to operation level.

Though rudimentary forms of AI have existed for decades, recent years have seen an enormous leap in the technology’s capabilities. The roots of AI development trace back to the 1940s with the creation of artificial neurons by Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts. Alan Turing, the father of modern computer science, introduced the Turing Test in 1950 to determine a machine’s ability to exhibit human-like responses and intelligence. Japan developed the first ‘intelligent’ humanoid robot WABOT-1 in 1972.

In the 2000s, the key AI developments included the emergence of machine learning, the expansion of robotics and computer vision, and the rise of data mining and pattern recognition. The 2010s saw remarkable progress in AI across various domains, driven by deep learning breakthroughs, open-source collaboration, increasing computing power, and more research funding and investment. In 2015, OpenAI’s establishment laid the groundwork for the current AI boom. In 2016, Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo program defeated professional Go player, demonstrating deep reinforcement learning’s potential for complex strategic games. In 2019, the world saw the launch of the first AI-enabled astronaut assistant.

The true turning point came with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, which brought AI into the public spotlight, generating widespread interest and investment. The post-2020 era is marked by groundbreaking developments in Generative AI, with large language models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4, Google’s Gemini (formerly Bard), Microsoft’s Bing AI, and Mistral AI’s Mixtral 8x7B, pushing the boundaries of human-machine interactions. Generative AI refers to programs that can create high-quality text, images, and other content based on the data they were trained on.


Artificial Intelligence Transforming Modern Warfare

With continuous advances in technology, the United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (UK), China, France, Russia, South Korea, and Israel are heavily investing in the development of weapons with increasing autonomy as other states are considering how to respond to the automation of warfare.

As more countries look to incorporate this technology into their militaries, these machines have prompted a debate about the development and deployment of weapons that can perform increasingly advanced functions with little or no human oversight. This led to the first-ever debate on AI at the United Nations Security Council meeting in July 2023, with a focus on the opportunities and risks posed by AI to international peace and security.

Beyond this initiative, several countries have started paying greater attention to the growing role of AI for military purposes. This culminated in the Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit, held in 2023 at The Hague. The summit, which the Netherlands co-organized with South Korea, issued a declaration titled “call to action” on the responsible development, deployment, and use of AI in the military domain. This was endorsed by 57 states, including the U.S., UK, China, Japan, Germany and France, excluding Russia. The summit discussed general military and defense-related applications of AI as well as the lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS).

Countries have also made progress in governing military AI. In February 2020, the US Department of Defense (DoD) became the first military department in the world to adopt ethical principles for all its military AI applications. This builds upon Directive 3000.09, established in 2012 and updated in January 2023, which governs the development and fielding of autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems. Other countries like the UK and France have developed national policies on military AI. Additionally, NATO unveiled its first AI strategy in 2021 for the responsible future use of AI.


U.S. Ambitions to Become an AI-Empowered Military

The United States is leading the way in AI technology development, driven by its ambition to become an AI-empowered military. In September 2018, the Pentagon pledged to make the largest investment to date in artificial intelligence (AI) systems for US weaponry, committing to spend US$2 billion over the next five years through its Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), to “develop next wave of AI technologies”.3 DARPA has a long history of funding research on advanced technologies, including AI, at universities like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Stanford University.

Recently, the U.S. military sought billions of dollars from lawmakers to enhance its AI and networking capabilities in the fiscal year 2024, aiming to become a more agile and interconnected force. The Pentagon aims to leverage AI for improved decision-making and to enhance unmanned platforms and other systems.A Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO) has been established to facilitate technology integration.4 The 2024 budget request includes $1.8 billion for artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to deliver responsible AI-enabled capabilities and support workforce development and data management efforts. Additionally, the Defense Department in fiscal 2024 requested $1.4 billion for Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) initiatives to “transform warfighting capability.”


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